The Bryan Air Podcast has become a crucial part of my everyday life. The show itself is broadcast over a 40 minute segment once a week however the lifestyle behind the show requires constant attention to the news and trends of the week. Being able to articulate an idea or trend is an art that needs to be learnt. I spend my time piecing together existing newsworthy stories, reading articles, watching online videos and viewing countless WhatsApp messages from friends and family sending me content for the upcoming show.
Reading the aviation news is one thing, having an opinion or identifying a gap in the market is something totally different. I would rather attempt to articulate my own thoughts and do it badly than read somebody else’s with confidence and clarity. The research has become an integral part of my daily workflow that I have become reliant on. For the sake of these notes not dying a slow death on a hidden Bryan Air Version 2.0 folder buried somewhere on my computer, I will endeavour to write these notes into a readable format and publish as a condensed weekly highlight reel. This is part of the promise to myself and the podcast crew to improve each episode by making small incremental gains. If we can add value no matter how small we are compelled to add that value and to keep on doing it.
My hope is that this self-authoring will improve my ability to articulate my thoughts more clearly during the podcast creating a more refined product. Thanks for indulging me.
News: This week the aviation market witnessed serious action, airline shares are up in the US and Europe by considerable margins, pilot shortage forecasts have drowned out my news feed. There is a possible vaccine on the cards earlier than expected and cargo carriers advertise their ability for “cold chain storage and distribution” to deliver 8000 Boeing 747’s worth of vaccine.
The pilot shortage forecast is an interesting story worth further thought. Pilots with long term involvement in the industry will tell you about these pilot shortage forecasts dating back many a year, its become a “click-bait” title and a dangerous one at that. The Bryan Air Podcast is all about positivity, I wont dismiss the possibility of a pilot shortage sometime in the future but will caution against a fixed mindset whilst waiting for the Zoom call from the airline recruitment department. There is still a very good chance you wont find yourself in the pointy end of an aircraft for a few years. I worry about pilots loosing any hard earned momentum whilst dealing with these unprecedented circumstances. It may have taken the past 6 months to start moving - don’t stop now, keep the discipline and keep on hustling. “That’s my advice”.
South African aviation is not immune to this weeks positive news, the borders are open to anyone and everyone wishing to visit our beautiful country provided you enter with the necessary negative PCR test. The beloved green machines in Kulula livery will be seen in the skies very soon. Airlink receive some beautiful new branding distancing themselves from carrying the heavy South African flag.
Lift will be competing with Kulula and FlySafair in the low cost market but will not be entering into a price war according to joint founder Gidon Novick. Lift is the cheapest of the LCC’s by a considerable margin so I wont buy into Gidon’s statement without a decent pinch of salt. Lift is a joint venture between Global Aviation, Gidon Novick and ex Uber executive Jonathan Ayache. Gidon has been the go to person for most of the media commitments. Mismanagement of airlines in South Africa is a hot topic right now, when we witness someone with a pedigree and strong aviation business acumen we get excited about the prospects of the future and rightly so.
An interesting observation the past few weeks is the omission of Mango from any genuine aviation news. I feel for the employees bumbling along week to week waiting for a damning story on the Fear24 network hinting at the possible demise of the airline. Moneyweb chose to ignore Mango’s pricing altogether in an article when comparing LCC pricing in SA. I wander if Conradie or Novick consider Mango a genuine threat in the market? I doubt it, not without a competent CEO or any CEO for that matter and continued government involvement.
Moving into Africa, Ethiopian receive 2 A350 deliveries on the same day bringing the total to 15 for the African flagship airline, The delivery flights were loaded with humanitarian aid which was a great PR move for both Airbus and Ethiopian. I couldn’t verify this news but rumours are floating around about A220’s being prepared in Ethiopian colours, possible replacements for the Q400’s perhaps? Ethiopian is also linked to a managerial and operational take-over of SAA. I say “take over” because providing aircraft, pilots and management is exactly that. FYI - there is no shortage of experienced South African pilots and operational personnel desperately in need of work, this after two State Owned Enterprises corrupted their way to bankruptcy leaving thousands unemployed, just another all to common DPE "success" story.
The Asian carriers consume most of the global airline news, the retiring of aircraft at Singapore Airlines and a major fleet review in progress at the carrier. 26 aircraft will be retired, ranging from A319’s to A380’s and everything in between. 11 737-800’s have been added to the balance sheet however this comes with the announcement of the Silk Air merger. The Silk Air name is no longer, even the old website has a redirect to the Singapore Airlines webpage. Scoot returns to Melbourne and Thai offloads 10 Boeing 747’s with the early retirement of some 5000 staff as part of their restructuring program.
The hub and spoke concept in the UAE has received slight criticism. The inconvenience of moving through airports is more evident now than ever before. Covid testing, fewer connecting flights and bigger consequences too missing those connections are all adding to the stress and unhappiness amongst a few Covid era passengers. The hub and spoke airports are no doubt best suited to continue as per usual post pandemic, the A321XLR adds a new option with the aircrafts incredible range. Expect to see some innovation from the hub and spoke operators in the near future using narrow bodies in the fleet arsenal more commonly. Qatar has benefited tremendously with having narrow body options. Digital airports and terminals with contactless check-in and passport control can’t arrive soon enough. Interestingly VFR travel (Visiting Friends, Relatives) is predicted to start relatively soon and will be the leading form of travel as opposed to leisure. The expanding VFR segment driven by globalisation will be crucial to the hub concept and international travel in general for the first quarter of 2021.
Tim Clarke made an interesting statement regarding the 115 Emirates owned A380’s. According to the CEO they are an essential part of the Emirates brand, grounding these Super Jumbos will damage the brand they have built which in the era of brand awareness is not an option. We can fortunately expect to see Emirates A380’s in the sky for the foreseeable future. Emirates has received criticism from other airlines stating that operating the A380’s is irresponsible in the current low demand climate.
To the exciting freighter market which is fast becoming the lifeline for unemployed pilots. Job adverts, news of freight demand, vaccine deliveries and the booming e-commerce sector are feeding fuel to the fire of optimism in this sector. Amazon Air, formally Prime Air expands operations in Europe by adding two more leased 737-800 freighters. Amazon intends to bring its freight operation in-house. This statement alone will get most pilots dusting off their cobwebbed flight bags. Amazon is currently taking advantage of the depressed market, they have 65 aircraft in total, all leased from various leasing companies. The Prime Air name was dropped to differentiate the airline from its drone delivery service currently in its testing phase. The e-commerce market is quietly making waves in the airline and freighter market, e-commerce is growing rapidly with delivery timeline options an important marker when it comes to choosing your online goods supplier. Watch this space.
The delivery of the Covid vaccine around the world is the story of the week, it will be an extremely complicated process with major cargo and passenger airlines planning ahead for this challenge of the century. I can only hope this mammoth operation is monitored by American ATC, has crew meals provided by Air France, maintenance signed off by Lufthansa, has the resilience of Alitalia and it all gets organised by ANA.
Find us on all major podcast platforms and don't forget to subscribe to our Youtube channel.
